Russian Arctic Strategy: Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Bureaucratic Politics - Global Warming Opening Oil, Hydrocarbon, Energy and Transport Rewards, Role of the Siloviki Bloc

This important 2018 report has been professionally converted for accurate flowing-text e-book format reproduction.

Global climate change is rapidly melting the polar ice caps and thus opening the Arctic to human activity. Russia is particularly affected by these changes as the nation with the longest Arctic coastline and a significant portion of its gross domestic product (GDP) generated above the Arctic Circle. This thesis examines how to best classify Russia's strategy in the pre- and post-2014 periods and concludes the strategy shows a remarkable degree of continuity given the dramatic changes that occurred that year. Contrary to arguments that Russia is "militarizing the Arctic" or attempting to conduct a land grab, during both periods Russia has pursued an "economic calculation" strategy, attempting to maintain a benign political environment while at the same time steering the Arctic energy and transport sectors for the purpose of reaping economic rewards. The continuity noted in Russia's strategy is perplexing when examined under a rational actor model. This thesis argues that a bureaucratic politics model more accurately reflects the reality of Russia's Arctic decision making process. The ideological beliefs of the siloviki political bloc in Russia, combined with the personal financial connections of many top politicians, has led Russia to develop and maintain its Arctic strategy.

I. INTRODUCTION * A. MAJOR RESEARCH QUESTIONS * B. SIGNIFICANCE OF THE RESEARCH QUESTION * C. LITERATURE REVIEW * 1. Economic Calculation * 2. Appropriate Great Power Action * 3. Military Positioning * 4. Resource Scramble * D. HYPOTHESIS AND METHODOLOGY * II. RUSSIAN ARCTIC INCENTIVES PRE-2014 * A. WHAT CONSTITUTES ECONOMIC CALCULATION? * B. WHY THE ARCTIC? * 1. Energy Prospects in the Arctic * 2. Mineral Resource Prospects * C. ECONOMIC CALCULATION OBJECTIVES—RESOURCE EXTRACTION * D. ECONOMIC CALCULATION OBJECTIVES—NORTHERN SEA ROUTE * E. CONCLUSION * III. RUSSIAN ACTIONS IN THE PRE-2014 PERIOD * A. OFFICIAL STRATEGIES * B. INVESTMENT * C. CLCS CLAIM * D. NORTHERN SEA ROUTE * E. AGAINST CONFRONTATIONAL THEORIES * F. CONCLUSION * IV. POST 2014: PROBLEMS SURROUNDING THE ECONOMIC CALCULATION STRATEGY * A. INTRODUCTION * B. SANCTIONS * C. OIL PRICE DROP * D. NSR CHALLENGES * E. CONCLUSION * V. RUSSIAN ACTIONS POST 2014 * A. INTRODUCTION * B. SCHOLARLY ANALYSIS * C. STRATEGIC DOCUMENTS AND LEADERSHIP STATEMENTS * D. INVESTMENT, TAXES AND ENERGY SECTOR STRATEGY * E. UNCLOS * F. NSR EFFORTS * G. CONCLUSION * VI. BUREAUCRATIC POLITICS * A. ESSENCE OF DECISION * B. WHO PLAYS? * 1. Putin * 2. Siloviki * 3. Liberals * 4. Unaligned Players * C. PLAYER'S PREFERENCES * 1. What Does Putin Want? * 2. What Do Putin's Advisors Want? * 3. Disagreements—The Siloviki Perspective * 4. Disagreements—Liberal Perspective * 5. Personal Interests * D. PLAYER'S IMPACT * E. HOW THE GAME IS PLAYED * F. CONCLUSION * VII. CONCLUSION